A preliminary assessment of the seismic hazard of the southern Rio Grande rift, New Mexico
— Stephen L. Salyards

To integrate information from recent paleoseismological studies of active faults in the southem Rio Grande rift, probabilistic hazard maps of the area were prepared. Using fault slip-rate information from paleoseismological studies in the southem rift, estimates of moment-rate and seismic-moment release were used to determine earthquake recurrence intervals. These recurrence intervals and an empirical relationship for predicting seismic accelerations provide estimates of frequency of specific levels of strong ground motion. From these frequency estimates, Poissonian probabilities are calculated in a grid covering the southem rift. This map shows the highest 100-yr probabilities of 0.1 g acceleration to be in the center of the Tularosa and Palomas Basins, with peak 100-yr probabilities of almost 2.5%. The 100-yr probability of one or more of the 16 faults breaking in a large event is 5%.